Tesla Model 3 - Make or Break ??

aside from co-founding Tesla JB Straubel is a nobody......

from his wikipedia page

"In 2008, Straubel was named to the MIT Technology Review TR35 as one of the top 35 innovators in the world under the age of 35.[5][6] He spoke at MIT's Emtech conference on a panel on green transportation in Boston, MA in September 2008."

Im sure tesla would be fine under his guidance, sounds kinda smart

 

I've seen some model 3 delivery videos now and man that interior looks cheap and like junk. I'm astounded people pay that much for that car. I guess different strokes for different folks...

 

My point he doesn't have what Musk has in keeping the markets charmed while hemorrhaging money - The Kid will collapse

 

I agree it doesn't look the greatest, obviously early adopters are somewhat test mules, but regardless most people like the simplistic nature of the car. Again my Ferrari Transmission is being repaired at a cost of over $20,000 right now. Nice to see that cars can function without a transmission......

 

My prediction 36-48 months Tesla will slide down a Waterfall Goodnight folks

 

Reinvesting in your company infrastructure rollout is now "hemorrhaging money" please stop reading zerohedge.com you lose more credibility everytime you speak. You literally have not answered any of the questions I posed for you and just are hellbent on spitting out garbage you're reading from other sites. Do you even know Tesla's cash position right now? It's well over $3B in cash and they will be doing another secondary soon and will have probably $8-10B in cash available to continue expanding. If the market had given up on tesla every secondary they do wouldn't be oversubscribed to with a waitlist to get involved.

 

Like I said Tesla could go bankrupt, their financial position is awful. As long as demand keeps soaring and sales keep soaring that will not happen. If the model 3 is a total dud and people hate it, they could go bankrupt, the reviews so far have been great, if Tesla survives 3 more years, its over for big auto, over. If they survive, and every day that reality gets much closer than anyone ever thought. Hell Ferrari is even looking to make an EV now.

 

are you guys betting against musk using your own money?
please answer truthfully.

 

EV is not going to replace ICE. There isn't enough lithium (1/2 of which is in Chile) or cobalt (largest holder is Congo) necessary to make the batteries for all cars to be EV plus consumer electronics. The only way for that to happen is for Lithium to be replaced with something more common like Aluminum. A functioning Aluminum ion battery would help as would a hybird battery that uses graphene for cathode/anode to increase capacity and charging rates.

All of that is currently under research and development around the world. The limiting step on that is a feasible electrolyte to use in the Al-graphene battery. The entire megafactory of Tesla that uses Lithium would be unnecessary once that is figured out.

 

No because many people have failed doing that - Plus I don't bet on failure my focus is private real estate investments

 

If your focus is real estate, why make uneducated comments on a business that you clearly dont understand. Go back and read everything you wrote in this thread, you literally have zero substance. You sound like the trolls on $TWTR "ROFL LULZ Musk is going to Jail" and yet you never post anything about whats really going on. I've laid out plenty for you, you always hit back with 1 liners that leave me scratching my head. If its bc you dont like EV's cool, but bring some substance to the argument from your end. Sauber above did.

and ps WTF is "private real estate investments". Im a trader at a volatility firm, I've worked in Private equity, Im friends with all kinds of investment professionals in a gamut of jobs, private real estate is nothing I've ever heard of. Are you in commercial? Are you in residential buying from wholesalers and rehabbing? Are you buying foreclosures? I mean wtf is "private real estate investments" you've mentioned it multiple times and your profile has one of the most insane Ferrari collections I've ever seen, just curious.......

 

How is the used market doing?

Unlike ice, with so many improvements it’s more like buying a five year old computer

 

Is this Larry Z from another angle?

 

You can disagree with me but a personal attack is uncalled for - Plus my personal business is none your business

 

Its not a personal attack, Im just curious what your level of invesment knowledge is bc like Ive stated multiple things in here, your rebuttals dont sound like those of someone with the plethora of cars you say you have. Your job title of "private real estate investor" is something I've never heard of and im an investment professional myself. I merely asked you to clarify what part of real estate you were in, clearly it struck a nerve for you. I've posted pics of my cars, do you have pics of all these cars in your profile you've had in the past? Im just saying someone who makes statements in the manner you do doesn't really sound like a seasoned "investor". A seasoned investor, albeit you're in real estate not stocks, would understand things like capex and that tesla is growing revenues by leaps and bounds while minimizing dilution as much as humanly possible by maintaining a high share price. Its actually quite fascinating from am investing standpoint.

It wasn't a personal attack, Im just making sure you are who you say you are, bc on the internet lots of people say untrue things and I figured a man of your means with multiple previous ferraris would understand the fundamentals of investing a bit more, especially being that you are an "investor" for a living. When I say im a volatility trader you can read previous posts of mine on here where I explain market dynamics.

 

I thought he was reasonably measured throughout the thread. He's right, you've offered very little of substance to provide context for you position - instead just responding with one unsubstantiated opinion after another. Are you basing your viewpoint on gut feelings or instinct?

As for your personal business, you brought that up yourself on more than one occasion. It's funny that you then bristle at the intrusion into your privacy when someone asks you to elaborate.

All the best,
Andrew.

 

Don't agree with your take on this Andrew

 

I agree with Andrew. I do not see a personal attack here. While @F355 Fan 82 words may have held an aggressive tone, he was attacking your argument, not you. He is questioning the information that you have provided, and it is up to you to defend yourself.

 

He called me a Troll - Please point at to me which one of my posts deserves that ?

 

He did not call you a troll. He said your argument is similar to a troll's. If you are wondering which posts he is referring to, ask him.

 

Thank you booker, I never once called anyone a troll. I just said a seasoned investor would make a deeper argument for why something is over/undervalued. I laid out discussion of revenue growth, charging network expansion, minimizing dilution, backorders, battery production costs and the other guy kept dropping 1 liners along the lines of "because I said so"

Nobody in here is attacking anyone, Im just saying Im a trader, and Im using the knowledge I have on the matter to defend my statements and Jaz is making no defense of his statements and its just shocking to me bc someone with his investment expertise I figured would be giving me an earful on why everything I was saying was wrong.

I never meant to insult anyone, just asked for a deeper knowledge of the matter from someone wishing to bash the company. The reason I mentioned your cars is bc typically someone who has a previous collection of 10 ferraris, that person typically makes more definitive statements using their knowledge of a particular subject. If you can't see that most of the rebuttals in here don't sound the way a typically multi ferrari owner would sound, then I apologize I judged wrongly and thats my fault.

 

My Profile mention previous cars it does not say it's a collection I bought my first car in 1996 and subsequently trade every 18 months
Currently I own a 2017 488 GTB

 

Regardless you are missing what I am saying. All Im saying is typically a guy who owns a $400,000 car, that guy, when he makes a statement its a statement with purpose, the statements you've made in this thread regarding Tesla, which obviously sounds like something you should be shorting with both hands bc it will make you another fortune if you're right. Anyways here is what you've said in this thread

1. What flavor of Kool-Aid do you prefer

2. Here's your rebuttal The Porsche Mission E is gonna slaughter the model S

3. When's your boy Musk ever going to make a profit ???

BTW I'm an Investor in private real estate projects - Don't do any public stocks

I could continue on, but do you grasp where I am coming from? Your rebuttals sound like something a petulant child would say, not an articulate multimillionaire who has owned multiple Ferraris. I even tried to grasp where you were coming from in the real estate world by asking if you were in commercial,residential, wholesale and you blew me off again. You have to understand Im not trying to be a jerk, Im around rich people all the time at these car meets in miami, all my friends in my personal life, and at work. I HAVE NEVER IN MY LIFE MET A PRIVATE REAL ESTATE INVESTOR WHO REFUSES TO DISCUSS WHAT HE DOES. Do you get where I'm coming from now? If you're a developer cool then say it. If you're a rehabber and flipper, cool say it. Whatever it is you are very vague about what you do and yet someone who does this for a living is trying to explain to you why tesla has a realistic shot at success and why the market is pricing its equity in a particular manner and you are refusing to make an argument based on facts and figures. You have to understand that on the surface, your demeanor makes you sound very much different from the guy you say you are, thats all I was saying. It wasn't an attack on you, it was an attack on your lack of eloquence in arguing your position.

 

Model 3 will be a game changer. I drove a friend's car and it has the best things that my $140K model S p85d Ludicrous has at a relatively affordable $40-50K price. It's size also feels a lot funner to drive. Once they come out with a P75D ludicrous or infinite plaid Model 3, I will be on the order list. It will be like a supersonic M3 or C63.

 

Correct, amazing car, tesla right now is doing what Ferrari does which is force the early cars to be fully loaded. Makes sense, they make more money and later as they expand capability get to the cheaper ones. The waitlist is 500k+ deep so its going to take time to ramp to them. Again if they boost sales 100% this year, which is possible if they go from 100k sold to 200-300k sold then the stock will keep moving higher. To this point its traded on a revenue multiple and not based on profits. Investors are giving them a pass and understand that higher share prices are need to keep dilution to a minimum. Their earnings are tomorrow I believe, they will report another loss but it will all hinge on model 3 guidance and hopefully elon doesn't delay anymore. He stated 5k/week by end of Q2 and its vital he guides well tomorrow to send shares higher in the short term. Technically speaking the chart is ugly as the daily chart just complete a double top and move down but Tesla is still in a channel where it can easily do all time highs at $390+ with a good ER. The stock is littered with shorts at almost 40% of the float thats why the moves are so violent but if if if the model 3 survives and thrives, tesla is on its way to domination. Their charging network is what will separate them from the competition. Sure others can make an EV, albeit in small quantities, but none of them have the charging network to take your car on long trips like tesla.