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What sales volume can Ferrari sustain?

Discussion in 'Ferrari Discussion (not model specific)' started by ylshih, Feb 16, 2010.

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What annual sales volume can Ferrari sustain?

  1. 10,000 or more

  2. 8,000-9,999

  3. 6,000-7,999

  4. 4,000-5,999

  5. 2,000-3,999

  6. Less than 2000

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  1. ylshih

    ylshih Global Moderator
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    #1 ylshih, Feb 16, 2010
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2010
    Ferrari grew past 5000 cars/year in the 2000's and was shooting for 10,000 cars per year. Considering all factors, current economy, industry consolidation, the addition of the California line, behavior of competitors, new markets in China and elsewhere, existing customer loyalty, etc. What annual sales volume do you think they can actually sustain in the 2010's?
     
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  3. RSQP

    RSQP F1 World Champ
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    Sales is going to be tied into service. This could pose problems for increased sales volumes.
     
  4. decardona

    decardona Formula Junior

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    Building around 5000 cars a year would keep exclusivity high, along with manageable service commitments. With around 250 work days a year, that's 20 cars a day, which right now I don't think they can sell.
     
  5. TheMayor

    TheMayor Eight Time F1 World Champ
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    #4 TheMayor, Feb 16, 2010
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2010
    We think of only the US as being the dominate Ferrari market. Well, it was... but not anymore.

    My guess is that Ferrari will probably sell about as many total cars in the US as it has in the past... maybe a few more but not many. The rest of the volume will go to increased sales throughout the world.

    That's why I say about 9K.

    The dealer in HK sold it's 1000th Ferrari a year ago. 1000 Ferrari's in a city about 8 million with very little space to drive them. And, they have a 100% TAX (so a typical Ferrari new costs about $500K). The CEO of our company has a 2009 F430 coupe. When you see things like this, then you realize that world can be a very different place from your perception.
     
  6. SrfCity

    SrfCity F1 Veteran

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    What's the sales volume per year for the last 10 years?
     
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  8. tundraphile

    tundraphile F1 Rookie

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    Ferrari could easily sell 10,000 units worldwide if they were priced perhaps 30% lower. With current prices and the worldwide recession I would say 5000 might be it.

    At some level of production you achive economies of scale that allows you to sell more volume at lower prices.
     
  9. ylshih

    ylshih Global Moderator
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    Not sure if this data has been verified, but it seems close:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ferrari

    Year Volume
    1999 3775
    2000 4070
    2001 4289
    2002 4236
    2003 4238
    2004 4975
    2005 5409
    2006 5671
    2007 6465
    2008 6587
     
  10. AceMaster

    AceMaster Three Time F1 World Champ

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    Interesting
     
  11. AceMaster

    AceMaster Three Time F1 World Champ

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    almost doubling in 10 years (well, not quite "almost" doubling)
     
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  13. SrfCity

    SrfCity F1 Veteran

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    #10 SrfCity, Feb 16, 2010
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2010
    They should pretty much flat line I'd imagine. The California isn't going to be their savior.

    PS - apparently the California was destined to be another Maser but they did the F switcheroo to try to bump things and actually sell a few.
     
  14. forgeahead

    forgeahead F1 Rookie
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    I don't know if I believe that. What's your source?
     
  15. ylshih

    ylshih Global Moderator
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  16. TheMayor

    TheMayor Eight Time F1 World Champ
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    #13 TheMayor, Feb 16, 2010
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2010
    OK, Cal haters... enough.

    The California is an extension of the brand -- and it's doing exactly that. Ferrari knows it's bread and butter is 2 seat sports cars. It's been that way since 1978. But, they also know that NOT EVERYONE who wants a Ferrari wants a two seat sports car. You see, some people actually LIKE taking the car out everyday or take the family on a drive on the weekends.

    Oh, the humanity! Imagine GT cars being made by Ferrari again (like most of it's cars Ferrari sold in the 60's and 70's). The horror!

    The Cal was not intended to be some kind of savior. If anything, the 458 is that. It's only a way for the car maker to supply a different car at an entry level price to stretch it's market base.

    It's called "get over it". There are actual owners who like their cars here...

    Now... let's get back to the discussion before this thread is completely hijacked.
     
  17. Hawkeye

    Hawkeye F1 Veteran
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    #14 Hawkeye, Feb 16, 2010
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2010
    As far as the V8 assembly line is concerned, unless they construct another building, they are limited at three (3) V8 cars per hour (California and 458 combined) during working hours and work days. The V8's are all assembled on the same line. When the line moves (every 20 minutes) the team inserting a dashboard assembly into a 458 could be inserting a dashboard into a California when the line moves the next time (20 minutes later).

    And unless they stop building V12's, there is no other place to build a V8 car. Realize this is not sales volume predictions but I thought I would chime in on the production capacity Ferrari could be anticipating with their latest modernization of the factory. With one shift working (everyone except test drivers/engineers leave at 4:30/5:00pm) that's 24 cars per day on an 8 hour day and it did not seem like they were making that many at all.
     
  18. Jackmb1

    Jackmb1 F1 Rookie

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    I wonder what 2009 will look like? I'm sure it's a lot lower then 2008.
     
  19. SrfCity

    SrfCity F1 Veteran

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    The California was to sell 5K cars in effect doubling production. What do you call that?
     
  20. champagne612

    champagne612 F1 Veteran
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    The problem is getting the SL / CL buyers to a Ferrari Dealer. Ferrari needs to pressure their dealers. The dealers became lazy - not the brand!

    Ferrari did their job - depreciation is far less on a daily driver than any competitor.

    The Cali ... please, who wouldn't want one
     
  21. Hawkeye

    Hawkeye F1 Veteran
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    Very true. Also, with Mercedes dealers, they can say to a buyer, "which one would you like to drive home today?" If they even got to the Ferrari dealer, they would find a much different story, probably no demo car, long wait, etc… The Ferrari brand can be a tough one to crack into.
     
  22. Texas Forever

    Texas Forever Four Time F1 World Champ
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    Yin: Interesting topic, but you're asking the wrong question. The real issue is how many dealerships does Ferrari want to have?

    Say, for example, Ferrari has 60 dealerships worldwide and makes 6,000 cars a year. (I don't have the time right now to look up the actual numbers.) This means each dealership gets 100 cars a year, or about 8 a month. If you figure a dealer profit of $30K a car (which might be high in today's market). This equals $240K a month of gross margin per car.

    This might sound good, but... Odds are this barely covers the dealer's monthly overhead nut. Sadly, Ferrari dealers don't make much on part sales. Ferrari Spa tends to suck up that juice. So, a dealer's real take-home profit comes from service.

    S-o-o-o, if Ferrari wants to open up the 61st dealership anywhere in the world, each existing dealer has to give up about 2 cars, or Ferrari can make another 100 cars.

    See where this is headed? Those of you who want Ferrari to make fewer cars need to understand your local dealership might just bite the dust.

    As far as Ferrari making more cars, this is a piece of cake in today's market. I think Fiat all by itself has excess capacity of 30,000 cars. Ferrari could easily design em and market em and let somebody else build em. (This might actually improve build quality.)

    Remember, these cars may be a passion for you and I, but for Ferrari and its dealerships, it is a business.

    Dale
     

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