Will the V-12 Survive ? - When's a good time to buy in to one

A lot can happen between now and 2030. Ireland (where I'm originally from) has made its usual political move of adopt the UK target (2030) without any thought as to how it's going to be achieved in practice. Outside parts of the east coast and Dublin it's a very sparsely populated country and is nowhere near set up for wholesale EV adoption. It's also got a huge agriculture industry and that machinery isn't going to switch to electric anytime soon. It's easy for a government of today to sail with the prevailing political winds when the target is a decade (and at least a couple of elections) away.

EU policy on vehicle emissions for the past decade has been a joke. 10 years ago it was all about Co2 and diesel was pushed as the clean energy of the future. This resulted in mass uptake of diesel passenger cars that we now know are far worse than any gasoline car in terms of pollution. Then dieselgate happened and now some governments are incentivising scrapping diesel cars for 'cleaner' hybrids (ignoring the combined envirommental effect of recycling a diesel vehicle and manufacturing a new hybrid vehicle).

Even if V12s are legislated out of existence in most of the world (and realistically that is likely to happen - I believe Mercedes are already close to phasing out their V12?) I don't see a massive price bump for the last remaining V12s. A few of us (the types who frequent these boards) are likely to stockpile them but the next generation will just look on at them in amusement or as a historical curiosity. It'll be a bit like the steam engine preservationists: they'll be kept in museums and storage and given the occasional run in public (if permitted by law).

I don't think it's all bad - the LaFerrari is a hybrid and I haven't heard too many complaints about that car. If I lived in a European city I'd happily run around in something like the new electric Fiat 500 or my motorbike and keep my gasoline cars at my (imagined) home in the countryside for weekend use.

 

Do you think all those gas stations are going to dissapear over 20 years, unlikely.

Lets look cat 2030. There are what 17 million new ICE cars sold in the USA per year. In 2030 even with electric mandates there will still be 10 million ice or hybrid/ice cars sold if not more, thats assuming they get to 5 million plus elctrics.. There will be an existing fleet of what 100million ICE cars.
2030 there will be close to as many gas stations as now.

No one is going to abandon the oil buisness refineries, wells, gas staiosn etc thats a huge income generator. Over time it will gradualy get smaller, but thast a 30-100 year timeliney

Even stretching out 50-100 years, Look at Smaall aircraft today, they use high octane gas, despite the market being minimal lie less than 1% its produced and distributed because its profitable to do so.
Race gas costs $10 per gallon for 100 octane, readily available at the few hundred race tracks that sell it or companies they'll deliver it to your home, reason its profitable.
Powerboats will be using gas for decades to come, thats an idusry sellign what 2 million untis per year, thats not getting shut down.
Even when a fleet of cars is mostly electric, say 2050 or 2070 there will be gas production and distribution. Its a product with a market, and even if that market is relatively small 100 years from now, it will be avialable. Going even further out, you can run an ICE car on Methanol with minimal mods or even LPG.
Any idea what all those oil fiure furnaces that keep the North east wnarm run on, pertolium fuel. Wells will be pumping and refineries refinign for 100 years or more. Yes the volumes may drop, but then the emisisons form pertolium will become irrlevant.

California has its fantasies. Remember the electric car mandate in the 80s or 90s. GM built the impact at huge cost and a few others did too. The mandate was abandoned because in the end it was just not feasible.
So yes its easy for a poltician now to say in 10 years no ice cars, and pander to the crowd.
Yes manufacturers will try comply, but in the end the market will speak, and mandates will be modified and rolled back, cause votes count too.
Enviromental policy is about forcing tech, so they're trying to force it. When the very relaistic obstacles hit, like power generation capacity, like envirmental degradation from mining, or refining rare earths, or battery disposal, the mandates will be modified. When the global warming"crisis" comes not to be as imagined, pressure will relax. When whole industries face extinction and mass layoffs, voters will modify mandates.

I can see the articles 20 years from now. "Internal combustion engines make a comeback" Theyll talk about how new tech has made these motors so much more efficient and non polluting etc.

If electrics are 30% of the USA car market in 10 years that will be a stunning acheivement.
For next 5 years you're paying a 30-40% premium to go electric. Theres still no grid to support widespread adoption.
Florida 2nd most populous state, Texas growing fast, neither of those are making electric mandates.

Its cool, I love the performance of a tesla and Rivian or tesla truck seems awesome, those are luxury products.
Most people buy a new car for a $200 per month payment. Thats not going to be an electric for a long time.
Californai and Ny can mandate what they want, people will move to Texas for jobs.

Its all goign to happen, but the transition will be slow.

In europe maybe it will be differnt, cause thy hate cars anyway, are socialist and want evreyone on mass transit. But what % of budgets come from fuel taxes, thats a huge percentage there.

 

Is that what the UK is planning? So Ferrari could still sell gasoline cars in the UK if they are under 10k?

 

I dont know, but the car hobby lobby is powerful in UK.
Italy is not going to let its premier brand get closed out, in the EU there will be special dipensation for prodctions below a certain threshold. maybe Ferrai gets to make 2000ICE per year.
Also a lot of these bas count Hybrids as electrics, flywheel assist which is really great ICE tech counts as a hybrid, like a la ferrari.

 

OMG, How are people ok with this?

 

Well this is depressing....

 

The right approach would be to ban fossil fuels. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

Guys don't get too stressed over this ,the EU will more than likely not even exist in 2030...

 

LOL, then you have effectively banned electricity in many many countries because you don't understand how electricity is generated.

 

Keep cool, I'm talking about car fuels ..

 

THIS is what you said, back tracking just makes your argument worse....nothing more, nothing less.

 

Thank you, I know pretty well what I wrote. But great that you let me see it again.

 

Obviously you didn't, hence the backtracking.....very clear to everyone you are naive about this issue, and alot of people do not know how electric power is produced. I spent a number of years in that industry as an Engineer.

Losing the ability to drive these classics would be a tragedy, so alot of us will take issue with your initial statement.

 

No reason to get personal. Why do you repeatedly mention electricity production when I made clear I talk about car fuels? I seems you just don’t care what I’m saying so why arguing against it at all?

Banning fossil fuels would bring the silly discussion away from banning ICEs. Moreover it would accelerate the development and production of synthetic fuels as e.g. Porsche is doing also with high relevance for classics to run cleaner.

 

So maybe the issue is that you don't know what fossil fuels are. The people who are so-pro electric cars also do not understand how electricity is produced. For example:

"Banning fossil fuels would bring the silly discussion away from banning ICEs."

This makes no sense whatsoever. You don't ban something if a suitable alternative is not available. There is no current suitable alternative, and won't be for decades.

 

If you like it or not, regulations will get stricter all over the globe in the next coming years/decades and bans/restrictions will be a major part of it. Do I like it? No, but it’s a pill we all have to swallow. So the question is rather what are the least freedom restricting measures.

 

OK, this is a much more realistic viewpoint. It will take decades to fully implement a change from fossil fuels as our base energy into something else. I personally think that something else won't be 100% fully electric cars, and these dumb government proclamations concerning 10-15 year bans on ICE cars are just stupid and shortsighted.

 

Nor do I see a future scenario where all cars go 100% electric, but that’s what would be the logic of an ICE ban – total nonsense. Therefor it is important to understand that from an environmental perspective not the ICE itself is the problem, but the fuels used to run them. What is needed is a strategy to phase-out fossil fuels at fuel stations gradually with increasing decarbonised proportions over the years until 100% at a certain point in time.

 

Let alone asphalt roads & 6,000+ other byproducts.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

 

I agree with this.

 

A simple reason why liquid automotive fuels will always exist:

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1093560_1-2-billion-vehicles-on-worlds-roads-now-2-billion-by-2035-report

There is no ability to replace the existing "fleet" of liquid fuel cars with battery powered.

Just to replace the existing fleet (with pure EVs) would take more than a century, probably never.

And, then to keep up with additional demand, just not going to be possible.

However, the motivation for the EU's directives again liquid fuels is not focused on replacement, it is focused on removing personal transport options and leaving only foot, bike, public transportation options, this is their stated goal.

So, again, no so much about "banning" and replacement, but complete eradication.

https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport_en

https://www.eea.europa.eu/highlights/walking-cycling-and-public-transport

https://www.masstransitmag.com/management/article/21133727/emerging-practices-in-low-emission-zones-throughout-europe

 

From polymershapes.com:

FUN FACT
More than 50 percent of a typical car is composed of plastics and polymer composites, but those materials account for only about 10 percent of vehicle weight.* *Courtesy of IAPD

Plastics are primarily made from oil.

 

By 2024, Your Porsche 911 Might Not Run On Gasoline Anymore (topspeed.com)

Great move from Porsche. Such an approach would also give the V12 a valid perspective for the long-term.